Also, OU added Arizona State punter Michael Turk this week.

Happy Saturday, friends and fans!

On Friday, the Oklahoma Sooners picked up a verbal commitment from 2023 three-star center Joshua Bates. The Durango, Colorado prospect also holds offers from the in-state Buffaloes, USC, Oregon and Michigan State.

According to 247 Sports, Bates is the No. 3 player in the state of Colorado. With his commitment, OU’s 2023 class maintains its No. 1 status, nationally.

Now onto this week’s Saturday edition of Hot Links! ‘Mondre runs wild in debut, the Sooners add a punter via the transfer portal, three major collegiate conferences are in talks of teaming up and more!

OU Links

• Earlier this week, former OU RB Rhamondre Stevenson made his NFL preseason debut in a big way with the New England Patriots. Check out this sensational 91-yard touchdown run against the Washington Football Team. On the night, Stevenson finished with 10 carries, 127 yards and two TDs.

• Former Arizona State Sun Devils punter Michael Turk recently announced his decision to transfer to Oklahoma. Per rules, the junior specialist will not be eligible to play until after the 2021 season.

• Earlier this week, eight Sooners were named to the 2022 Reese’s Senior Bowl Watch List. The group includes OT Erik Swenson, S Delarrin Turner-Yell, OL Marquis Hayes, OL Tyrese Robinson, RB Kennedy Brooks, H-back Jeremiah Hall, DT Perrion Winfrey and DE Isaiah Thomas. Boomer!

• Former Oklahoma and current Dallas Cowboys DT Neville Gallimore reportedly suffered a hyperextension injury in his left elbow during a preseason game against the Arizona Cardinals. A timetable for recovery is still to be determined.
• In case you missed it, OU plans to stripe the stadium (barring capacity restrictions) in the home opener against Western Carolina on Sept. 11. If you plan on attending this game, make sure you wear the right colored shirt!

Around the Sports World

• Conference commissioners from the Big Ten, ACC and Pac-12 have reportedly been in communication about forming a future scheduling alliance.
• The Los Angeles Clippers and forward Kawhi Leonard have agreed to a four-year, $176 million contract extension for the five-time NBA All-Star.
• Florida Gators CB Jaydon Hill has been ruled out for the 2021 college football season after recently suffering a torn ACL.
• Free agent RB Derrius Guice has been suspended by the NFL for six games for a violation of the league’s personal conduct policy.
• On Friday, the San Francisco Giants signed All-Star shortstop Brandon Crawford to a two-year, $32 million contract extension.

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OU may be a double-digit favorite in every game it plays during the regular season.

With preseason practices starting for the Oklahoma Sooners, this seems like as good of a time as to put together a projected win total for the team this year.

I do this exercise every year. As a refresher, here’s how it works:

• Using my own set of power ratings, I set a point spread for every game on OU’s schedule.
• Based on the point spreads, I determine the likelihood the Sooners will win each game.
• I convert that likelihood to a fraction of a win.
• Lastly, I tally up the fractions of wins to estimate a projected total for the end of the season.

As an example, a three-point favorite in a game historically wins 57% of the time. That translates into 0.57 wins for the purpose of creating a projected total. If the Sooners were favored by three points in each of their 12 games in the regular season, they would have a projected win total of 6.84.

Here’s what I came up with for OU in 2021.

A few notes:

*BetMGM currently has OU sitting at -120 to go over 11 wins and even money for under. A projected total of roughly 11.1 doesn’t make for a compelling bet either way there.

*The Sooners favored by double digits in every game? Yikes. I don’t feel good about that level of optimism.

*Even though OU has won five of its last seven meetings against the Texas Longhorns in the Cotton Bowl, the Red River Shootout hasn’t been decided by more than eight points since 2013. Twelve points may feel high, but this year’s matchup could be the last time for a while that one team has a clear upper hand.

*I may not have set the spread high enough for the Kansas game.

*Would any of these games qualify as a trap spot or danger game? Perhaps TCU, which comes right after the Texas game. Playing the Horned Frogs in Norman calms the nerves, though.

*It may not have the lowest line, but Bedlam sets up as the wildest game of the season. The events of the last month portend a charged atmosphere in Stillwater over Thanksgiving weekend.

Oklahoma continues its string of elite 2023 commitments.

The Oklahoma Sooners are once again reeling in high-level recruits ahead of their exit to SEC. Five star 2023 athlete Makai Lemon has announced his commitment to OU amid a flurry of other elite prospects. He plays both ways and gives off some serious Adoree Jackson vibes as far as his talent level on both sides of the ball.

Lemon has picked to the Sooners over schools such as USC, Alabama, Florida, Georgia, and a number of other top programs.

Lemon is an elite prospect with a frame of 6’0, 180lbs out of Los Alamitos, California. He comes from the same school as 2023 QB commit Malachi Nelson and Oklahoma interest DeAndre Moore Jr. — both of whom are fellow five-star athletes. His burst of speed, quick twitch and change of direction are all at special levels for a prospect that’s still only halfway through high school. His ball skills and body control are incredible — he’s smooth catching and running just as much as he is incredibly physical in run support and willing to dish out hits from the secondary. The former traits, however, seem to be his destiny at the next level, and the thought of the Nelson-Lemon duo connecting for TDs in Norman should excite OU fans.

Lemon is Oklahoma’s fourth commitment for the 2023 recruiting class cycle. According to 247Sports Composite Rankings, he is the No. 4 athlete in the country, the No. 3 overall player from the state of California, and the No. 33 player overall in 2023. Needless to say, Dennis Simmons is a happy man right now.

OU’s offense saw its conversion rate dip on third down in 2020.

Among many indicators of supreme offensive potency since Lincoln Riley arrived in Norman, the Oklahoma Sooners run very few plays on third down.

For example, despite playing 14 games in 2018, OU registered the lowest number of third-down snaps of any team in the country, 140. A year later, the Sooners were at 155 plays in 14 games on third down, seventh fewest overall nationally. In the weird Covid-19 season of 2020, OU had 135 third-down plays on offense in 11 contests, ticking up slightly from previous years to a rate of about 12.7 per game.

Factors such as pace of play, explosiveness and proclivity for turnovers can skew results, but running fewer plays on third down generally indicates a team is gaining so many yards on the first two plays of a series or that third down is unnecessary. For perspective, the ‘18 OU squad pumped out a staggering average of 8.5 yards per play on first down. When you have to gain two yards to convert on second down, the likelihood of needing a third or fourth snap to continue a drive falls dramatically.

But what about actually converting on third down? Although it’s not clear if that is a skill apart from offensive efficiency, it can dramatically affect the outcomes of games. The inability to turn third downs into firsts consistently last year put OU in some tight spots.

Historically, the national median for teams’ third-down conversion rate falls almost right on 40% every season. That includes all third downs – naturally, the conversion rates differ depending on distance.

In ‘18 and ‘19, the OU offense was ruthlessly effective on third down. The Sooners ranked fourth nationally in ‘18 with a conversion rate of 50.7%. OU didn’t drop off much the next year, gaining first downs on 49.7% of its attempts, the fifth-best in the entire country.

In ‘20, OU’s performance nosedived. The Sooners converted 40.7% of their third-down attempts, which put them 60th overall. What changed?

When running the ball on third down, OU was essentially just as effective in ‘20 as ‘19. Thirty-four percent of the team’s rushing attempts last year produced first downs versus 37% the year before that.

Throwing the ball was a different story. The Sooners’ conversion rate fell from 48.5% in ‘19 to 40.9% in ‘20. Importantly, OU’s completion percentage dipped from 63.6% to to 56.8% on third down.

Perhaps that speaks to efficiency issues at quarterback when moving from Jalen Hurts to Spencer Rattler. After all, we tend to think of stats like completion percentage as a reflection of a QB’s accuracy and decision-making.

What about the players catching the passes from the QBs, though? In fact, you could make a good case that the Sooners missed star wide receiver CeeDee Lamb more on those money downs between 2019 and 2020 than in any other facet of the game.

Of the 48 third-down completions that generated first downs in ‘19, Lamb accounted for nearly a fourth of them, 11. In the next season, thirty-six completions on third down produced first downs. The player who caught more of them than anyone else during the ‘20 season: Austin Stogner with seven. That would be the same tight end who missed the better part of five games.

None of that is to say that OU needs to find a new superstar among its current receiving corps. If a team has three or four good options, spreading the passes around in high-leverage situations works just as well as relying on one go-to receiver.

On the other hand, when you’re accustomed to having a CeeDee Lamb at your disposal, losing that kind of player forces teams to reorient how they operate. Plays that used to be reliable in key spots may not be so reliable anymore. If OU struggled with that kind of shift during a Covid-affected season, it seems understandable, especially when you consider the number of unproven players used in important roles.

Most of the key pieces of the OU offense return in 2021, however. That should put the Sooners in position to raise their proficiency when it comes to turning third downs into firsts.

Spencer Rattler’s work ethic is evolving.

Happy Friday, friends and fans!

It’s no secret that redshirt sophomore QB Spencer Rattler will be one of the most talked about players in college football this season. Even with a number of individual accolades likely destined to come his way, he’s maintained that his primary mission is to lead the Oklahoma Sooners to the program’s eighth national championship.

Speaking of Rattler, OU Daily’s Mason Young recently penned this fantastic piece about the growth in maturity shown by the talented Phoenix, Arizona product.

Stories like this help shape how we perceive the star power before us. By now it should be clear to all that Rattler is who is he is today because he’s always been confident in his abilities as an athlete. Those who have had the privilege to be around him as either a young quarterback or the face of a blue blood have an true understanding of the heights he’s capable of reaching as he continues to combine his natural born talent with his ever-evolving work ethic.

Once again, many props to Mason Young for putting together this insightful story about one of the top players in the game today.

Now onto this week’s Friday edition of Hot Links! Austin Stogner is back to his full strength, Perrion Winfrey has his eyes set on a big season, RGIII has joined ESPN as an analyst and more!

OU Links

• On Friday afternoon, 2023 four-star TE prospect Luke Hasz announced his verbal commitment to play for Oklahoma. The Bixby product is currently rated as the No. 1 overall player in the Sooner State and second best recruit at his position according to the 247 Sports Composite Rankings.

• You get all the points if you immediately recognized the song and artist OU’s media department used for this epic camp setter. Boomer!

• Redshirt junior LB Brian Asamoah is excited about the first day of fall practice at OU, and so am I. Sooner!

• After missing a significant stretch of time during the 2020 season, H-back Austin Stogner is back to full health heading into his junior season. OU Daily’s Chandler Engelbrecht has more.
• After a respectable Oklahoma debut a year ago, senior DT Perrion Winfrey believes he is primed for a monster 2021 season. From both a mental and physical perspective, he and his teammates are expecting big things from the terror on the inside. SI Sooners’ Ryan Chapman has more.
• Cornerback coach Roy Manning may be entering his third season at OU, but he has the energy of a brand new hire. These videos will never not fire me up. Let’s go!

• Breaking News: Baker Mayfield is still an absolutely charming individual with a heart of gold and a knack for comedy.

Around the Sports World

• Former Baylor Bears Heisman Trophy winner and first round pick QB Robert Griffin III has reportedly struck a multiyear deal with ESPN as an analyst for both college football and the NFL.
• Guard Andre Iguodala is returning to the Golden State Warriors after a couple seasons with the Miami Heat organization. The 37-year-old is reportedly joining GSW on a veteran’s minimum contract.
• The Charlotte Hornets have reportedly signed free agent wing Kelly Oubre Jr. to a two-year, $26 million deal.
• After three years on the job, Michigan State Spartans AD Bill Beekman is set to step down from his role as Athletic Director. A replacement has not yet been named.
• New York Giants offensive lineman Zach Fulton has reportedly called it a career after recently announcing his retirement from playing professional football. Fulton is the third veteran to hang it up since training camp started for Big Blue.

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Riley touched on realignment, health and more on Thursday.

Happy Thursday, friends and fans!

Entering his fifth season as the head coach of the Oklahoma Sooners, Lincoln Riley addressed the media in a press conference on Thursday to mark the official start of preseason fall camp at OU.

Below are highlights from today’s presser.

• On Thursday, Riley said that nearly every player is coming out of summer workouts healthy, including sophomore wideouts Jadon Haselwood (missed most of 2020 with knee injury) and Theo Wease (missed spring camp). Also, sophomore WR Trevon West is reportedly back with the team after entering his name into the Transfer Portal this past February.

• It remains to be seen if Bedlam will be part of the Sooners’ future non-conference schedules when the dust finally settles on this round of conference realignment, but now you can add Lincoln Riley to the list under AD Joe Castiglione and OU president Joe Harroz as those who are on record in hoping to see the rivalry with the Oklahoma State Cowboys continue.

• It’s no secret that on average, teams from the SEC generally recruit at a higher clip than those from other leagues, especially when it comes to prospects on the defensive side of the ball. Riley touched on the potential this development has for his team now that a move to the Southeastern Conference is officially imminent.

• After Creed Humphrey was selected by the Kansas City Chiefs in the second round of the 2021 NFL Draft, a significant hole needs to be filled at the center position. Riley named Chris Murray, Andrew Raym, Ian McIver, Nate Anderson and Robert Congel as guys who are in competition to take over that key spot that anchors OU’s offensive line.

• According to Riley, most of the team (coaching staff and players) have received their COVID-19 vaccinations during this offseason, but he is also fully aware of the rising concern surrounding the Delta variant.

• With Spencer Rattler having the starting QB job on lock, the backup roles are not as definite, although Riley did admit that five-star 2021 signee Caleb Williams is in the lead going into fall camp.

Now for today’s Hot Links! Initial pay-per-view details are revealed for OU’s home opener, Gerald McCoy is headed to Sin City, the NFL preseason kicks off tonight and more!

OU Links

• On Thursday, redshirt sophomore QB Spencer Rattler was named to the 2021 Manning Award Watch List. This honor is the only national quarterback award that factors a player’s postseason performance into consideration before naming its recipient.

• SI Sooners’ John Hoover recently expounded on three things he’s watching for during OU’s fall camp, including a couple key players as well as the growing concern surrounding the COVID-19 Delta Variant.
• Also from SI Sooners, Josh Callaway wants to use this preseason camp to gain a clearer picture on OU’s backup QB situation, the running back pecking order, and the potential impact of the late transfer additions.
• It’s official. Oklahoma’s 2021 home opener (second game on the schedule) against the Western Carolina Catamounts is set for a pay-per-view broadcast. The Sept. 11 kick-off will be available for Cox cable subscribers for $39.95. A start time is still to be determined.

• On Thursday, Sooners Wire’s John Williams provided his list of Oklahoma’s top 10 pass catchers going into the 2021 season. Keep in mind, not everyone listed is a wide receiver, and that should be some very exciting news for Heisman hopeful QB Spencer Rattler.
• Redshirt senior H-back Jeremiah Hall plans on having surgery after the upcoming season to correct the alignment in one of his fingers, but first he’s focused on finishing his Sooner career on a high note. The Oklahoman’s Ryan Aber has more.
• On Wednesday, the Las Vegas Raiders signed former OU standout and six-time Pro Bowl DT Gerald McCoy. Let’s go, GK!

• Less than two months ago, Patty Gasso hoisted her fifth national championship following a remarkable, record-breaking run with her historic softball team. This week, the Hall of Famer returned to her original home out west where she tossed the first pitch for the Los Angeles Dodgers.

• Like I always say, it’s never too early for gift shopping. If you’re out here looking for ideas, look no further than this Sooners themed bobblehead from FOCO to commemorate Oklahoma’s 2021 Softball Championship. Boomer!
• In case you missed it, former OU men’s basketball guard Austin Reaves signed a two-way player deal with the Los Angeles Lakers earlier this week. Currently, he’s competing in Summer League play for LA. Congratulations, AR-12!

Around the Sports World

• Tonight, the Dallas Cowboys and Pittsburgh Steelers kick-off the 2021 NFL Preseason in Canton, Ohio’s Hall of Fame Stadium. You can catch all the action starting at 7 p.m. CT on FOX.

• The Southeastern Conference has extended commissioner Greg Sankey to a deal that will keep him in his role as the head of the SEC through 2026.
• The New York Knicks have reportedly signed forward Julius Randle to a four-year, $117 million contract extension.
• When the New York Yankees and Chicago White Sox go head-to-head on Aug. 12, they’ll each be wearing special uniforms to commemorate this unique ‘Field of Dreams’ event. The game is set to get underway at Dyersville Ballpark in Iowa, and the first pitch is scheduled for 6:15 p.m. CT on FOX.

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