At least one popular set of college football analytics is forecasting the Sooners to improve this season.

For about 20 years, we’ve had a good idea of what to expect from the Oklahoma Sooners in the coming season. The particulars differed, but Sooners would probably win at least 10 games and have a shot at winning the Big 12. A desirable postseason destination usually felt like a solid bet.

Despite a change at head coach and significant roster turnover, college football’s preeminent analytics guru doesn’t see much changing for OU in 2022. ESPN’s Bill Connelly on Wednesday published his preseason SP+ projections for 2022, and his numbers rank the Sooners as the No. 7 team in the country heading into the season.

Interestingly, that would represent a step forward for the program from last season, when OU was billed as a contender for a national championship prior to the season. The Sooners floated through a lackluster 2021 campaign in which they finished with an 11-2 record and missed the reanimated Big 12 title game for the first time in five years. OU ended the year at 13th overall in the SP+ rankings.

The source of OU’s predicted improvement, per SP+? Defense. The Sooners tumbled from 15th in Defensive SP+ in 2020 to 58th last year. They’re projected to improve to 27th in ‘22.

Meanwhile, SP+ isn’t projecting much of a downturn in offensive efficiency for OU after the departures of head coach Lincoln Riley and star quarterback Caleb Williams for USC. The Sooners check in at sixth nationally in Offensive SP+ for 2022, down slightly from No. 3 last season.

Lonely at the top (three)

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As has been the case for what feels like forever, SP+ sees a clear separation between a handful of top teams in ‘22.

The top three squads – Ohio State, Alabama and Georgia – sit within about 3.5 points of each other in their overall SP+ rating. The gap between UGA at three and No. 4 Michigan is six points.

In other words, SP+ would likely forecast the Buckeyes playing either the Crimson Tide or the Bulldogs for the national title in January. Something completely different.

(As an aside, Ohio State will have a filthy offense if the model is correct. Get your bets in now on C.J. Stroud to win the Heisman Trophy.)

A down Big 12

The Big 12 had a solid collection of teams in ‘21, according to SP+. Five teams finished 21st or better overall – No. 12 Oklahoma State, No. 13 OU, No. 15 Baylor, No. 19 Iowa State and No. 21 Kansas State.

The SP+ outlook for this year is far less rosy. After OU at seven, the closest Big 12 team to the Sooners is Baylor down at 30. Texas and OSU aren’t far behind at 33rd and 36th, respectively.

Based on the projections, the Sooners would probably be close to double-digit favorites in every Big 12 game except for the Red River Rivalry game against the Longhorns. In fact, SP+ would make OU’s trip to Lincoln to take on Nebraska the Sooners’ toughest game of the season.

Reality checks

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Connelly did point out that his system doesn’t take coaching changes into account. With first-year coach Brent Venables installing his defensive scheme and new offensive coordinator Jeff Lebby putting his offense in place, a seamless transition to the next era of OU football is no sure thing.

Frankly, coaching turnover isn’t the only reason why skepticism about the Sooners in ‘22 seems reasonable. A number of contributors joined Williams in skipping town via the transfer portal, including two of the top four receivers from the ‘21 squad. Additionally, 11 players from last season’s team received invitations to the NFL combine in Indianapolis this year.

But that last data point also speaks to one of the reasons for optimism about the upcoming year: A team with that many NFL prospects scraping by like the Sooners did in ‘21?

OU underperformed last season. That doesn’t mean the program needed a regime change – that kind of thing happens in college football, after all. It does go to show that OU wasn’t necessarily firing on all cylinders.

So what if Riley simply hit his expiration date in Norman? In that case, bringing in a new coach like Venables could give the Sooners a needed jolt.

After losing seven of their last eight games, the Sooners picked up a top-10 win to reinvigorate their postseason hopes.

After losing seven of their last eight games, the Oklahoma Sooners picked up a top-10 win to reinvigorate their postseason hopes, topping No. 9 Texas Tech by a score of 70-55. With the victory, OU improves to 14-10 overall and 4-7 in Big 12 play.

Senior guard Umoja Gibson led OU in a big way, dropping 30 points on 9-14 shooting and 8-11 from three-point range. After scoring 13 and keeping the Sooners afloat during a sloppy first half, the sharpshooter helped OU seize the momentum early in the second half and build itself a cushion down the stretch. Elijah Harkless also provided a nice spark on both ends, adding 13 points of his own while also keeping Tech’s talented guards in check.

Entering the evening, OU sat at No. 48 in the NCAA’s NET Rankings and was slotted in Joe Lunardi’s “Last Four In”. A win over a top-10 team will undoubtedly improve the situation. The Sooners needed to “steal” one or two down the stretch in order to feel good about their NCAA Tournament chances, but OU can now likely punch a ticket by winning the ones it’s expected to win.

Next up is a Saturday trip to Allen Fieldhouse, where OU will face No. 8 Kansas at noon on CBS. The following Tuesday will feature a crucial one, as OU will host Texas at 6 p.m. for an ESPN2 matchup.

Both the Senior Bowl and the Pro Bowl were filled with familiar faces.

Happy Wednesday, Sooners friends and fans!

Oklahoma Men’s Basketball continues to struggle this season, now losing seven of their last eight games after falling in Stillwater to Oklahoma State, 64-55. Outside of Tanner Groves and Elijah Harkless, the team shot just over 21% from the field and contributed a total of 17 points.

The Big 12 grind is like no other and there’s no better opportunity to get back in the win column than knocking off a Top 10 team on your home court. Next up is the No. 9 Texas Tech Red Raiders coming to the Lloyd Noble Center on Wednesday at 8 p.m. You can catch the game on ESPNU.

OU Football

Some former Oklahoma Sooners Football players are once again turning heads on big stages. First of all, Perrion Winfrey was named the MVP of the Senior Bowl. That’s right. MVP as a Defensive Tackle. Winfrey racked up five tackles, three for loss and two sacks to earn the MVP honor. Winfrey is the first Senior Bowl defensive MVP since 2014.

Then in the Pro Bowl multiple former Sooners made their presence felt. First on Team NFC, Kyler Murray lead the game with 160 passing yards on 18/27 passing, with 3 touchdowns and an interception. CeeDee Lamb hauled in four catches for 41 yards. On the other side of the ball, Mark Andrews had a team high five catches for 82 yards and two touchdowns to power Team AFC to a 41-35 victory.

Not a whole lot going on with the current Oklahoma Sooners Football team over the weekend, but with the ever evolving college football landscape the Transfer Portal is becoming more and more of a topic. OU lost a lot over the last couple months and brought in a lot from the portal. The Oklahoman dives into what Brent Venables thinks should be tweaked with the Transfer Portal.

OU Women’s Basketball

Oklahoma Women’s Basketball is on an absolute roll right now, sitting at 20-3 on the season after pulling out an incredible 2OT victory against West Virginia on Saturday, 101-99. The Sooners are now No. 12 in the country, their highest ranking since November 2016. Oklahoma was also named the national Team of the Week by ESPN, while Madi Williams was named Big 12 Player of the Week. OU gets the week off and is back in action on Saturday at the No. 16 Texas Longhorns at 7 p.m. on the uber successful Longhorn Network. Also, the Oklahoman’s Jenni Carlson breaks down why first-year Sooners Head Coach Jennie Baranczyk is a national Coach of the Year candidate.

OU Softball

It’s almost that time! Oklahoma Sooners Softball is back Thursday looking to defend their 2021 National Championship and win their 6th overall National Title. The Sooners are the consensus preseason No. 1 team in the country and of course the Big 12. The Sooners are headed out to California for their first four games of the 2022 season. Thursday OU plays at UC Santa Barbra at 4:30 p.m. You can catch the season opener on ESPN+.

Then over the weekend the Sooners play in the Mark Campbell Invitational, all four games are airing exclusively on flosoftball. The Sooners play Loyola Marymount on Friday at 5:45 p.m and Mississippi State on Friday at 8:30 p.m. Saturday, Oklahoma has a massive showdown against No. 3 UCLA at 6 p.m. The Sooners wrap the weekend up against UC San Diego at 1 p.m. on Sunday.

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