The countdown has now reached 28, as in days before the official kickoff to the 2021 Oklahoma football season. The Sooners began fall preseason practice on Friday, and we continue our countdown series highlighting interesting facts, figures and stories from Oklahoma seasons past and present. The number 28 evokes thoughts and images of one of […]
Oklahoma football recruiting was on a roll in July, picking up seven commitments, including two in the class of 2023. On Friday, the Sooners added their first August commitment and third for 2023 when four-star tight end Luke Hasz from Bixby, Oklahoma, picked OU over offers from major programs like Ohio State, LSU, Texas and […]
OU’s offense saw its conversion rate dip on third down in 2020.
Among many indicators of supreme offensive potency since Lincoln Riley arrived in Norman, the Oklahoma Sooners run very few plays on third down.
For example, despite playing 14 games in 2018, OU registered the lowest number of third-down snaps of any team in the country, 140. A year later, the Sooners were at 155 plays in 14 games on third down, seventh fewest overall nationally. In the weird Covid-19 season of 2020, OU had 135 third-down plays on offense in 11 contests, ticking up slightly from previous years to a rate of about 12.7 per game.
Factors such as pace of play, explosiveness and proclivity for turnovers can skew results, but running fewer plays on third down generally indicates a team is gaining so many yards on the first two plays of a series or that third down is unnecessary. For perspective, the ‘18 OU squad pumped out a staggering average of 8.5 yards per play on first down. When you have to gain two yards to convert on second down, the likelihood of needing a third or fourth snap to continue a drive falls dramatically.
But what about actually converting on third down? Although it’s not clear if that is a skill apart from offensive efficiency, it can dramatically affect the outcomes of games. The inability to turn third downs into firsts consistently last year put OU in some tight spots.
Historically, the national median for teams’ third-down conversion rate falls almost right on 40% every season. That includes all third downs – naturally, the conversion rates differ depending on distance.
In ‘18 and ‘19, the OU offense was ruthlessly effective on third down. The Sooners ranked fourth nationally in ‘18 with a conversion rate of 50.7%. OU didn’t drop off much the next year, gaining first downs on 49.7% of its attempts, the fifth-best in the entire country.
In ‘20, OU’s performance nosedived. The Sooners converted 40.7% of their third-down attempts, which put them 60th overall. What changed?
When running the ball on third down, OU was essentially just as effective in ‘20 as ‘19. Thirty-four percent of the team’s rushing attempts last year produced first downs versus 37% the year before that.
Throwing the ball was a different story. The Sooners’ conversion rate fell from 48.5% in ‘19 to 40.9% in ‘20. Importantly, OU’s completion percentage dipped from 63.6% to to 56.8% on third down.
Perhaps that speaks to efficiency issues at quarterback when moving from Jalen Hurts to Spencer Rattler. After all, we tend to think of stats like completion percentage as a reflection of a QB’s accuracy and decision-making.
What about the players catching the passes from the QBs, though? In fact, you could make a good case that the Sooners missed star wide receiver CeeDee Lamb more on those money downs between 2019 and 2020 than in any other facet of the game.
Of the 48 third-down completions that generated first downs in ‘19, Lamb accounted for nearly a fourth of them, 11. In the next season, thirty-six completions on third down produced first downs. The player who caught more of them than anyone else during the ‘20 season: Austin Stogner with seven. That would be the same tight end who missed the better part of five games.
None of that is to say that OU needs to find a new superstar among its current receiving corps. If a team has three or four good options, spreading the passes around in high-leverage situations works just as well as relying on one go-to receiver.
On the other hand, when you’re accustomed to having a CeeDee Lamb at your disposal, losing that kind of player forces teams to reorient how they operate. Plays that used to be reliable in key spots may not be so reliable anymore. If OU struggled with that kind of shift during a Covid-affected season, it seems understandable, especially when you consider the number of unproven players used in important roles.
Most of the key pieces of the OU offense return in 2021, however. That should put the Sooners in position to raise their proficiency when it comes to turning third downs into firsts.
While the greater impact of OU’s conference relocation to the SEC has to do with Oklahoma football, it is a move that will affect all OU athletics. It is sure to provide a greater competitive challenge for the Sooners in softball, baseball and women’s gymnastics, two of which are premier sports for Oklahoma nationally, but […]
It’s no secret that redshirt sophomore QB Spencer Rattler will be one of the most talked about players in college football this season. Even with a number of individual accolades likely destined to come his way, he’s maintained that his primary mission is to lead the Oklahoma Sooners to the program’s eighth national championship.
Speaking of Rattler, OU Daily’s Mason Young recently penned this fantastic piece about the growth in maturity shown by the talented Phoenix, Arizona product.
Who is #Sooners QB @SpencerRattler? Once the confident kid who told his youth coach “I got this,” before winning their state title game, he’s now matured physically and mentally into a Heisman candidate focused on winning the national championship.https://t.co/V2ROKQ8q9U
Stories like this help shape how we perceive the star power before us. By now it should be clear to all that Rattler is who is he is today because he’s always been confident in his abilities as an athlete. Those who have had the privilege to be around him as either a young quarterback or the face of a blue blood have an true understanding of the heights he’s capable of reaching as he continues to combine his natural born talent with his ever-evolving work ethic.
Once again, many props to Mason Young for putting together this insightful story about one of the top players in the game today.
Now onto this week’s Friday edition of Hot Links! Austin Stogner is back to his full strength, Perrion Winfrey has his eyes set on a big season, RGIII has joined ESPN as an analyst and more!
OU Links
On Friday afternoon, 2023 four-star TE prospect Luke Hasz announced his verbal commitment to play for Oklahoma. The Bixby product is currently rated as the No. 1 overall player in the Sooner State and second best recruit at his position according to the 247 Sports Composite Rankings.
After missing a significant stretch of time during the 2020 season, H-back Austin Stogner is back to full health heading into his junior season. OU Daily’s Chandler Engelbrecht has more.
After a respectable Oklahoma debut a year ago, senior DT Perrion Winfrey believes he is primed for a monster 2021 season. From both a mental and physical perspective, he and his teammates are expecting big things from the terror on the inside. SI Sooners’ Ryan Chapman has more.
Cornerback coach Roy Manning may be entering his third season at OU, but he has the energy of a brand new hire. These videos will never not fire me up. Let’s go!
Former Baylor Bears Heisman Trophy winner and first round pick QB Robert Griffin III has reportedly struck a multiyear deal with ESPN as an analyst for both college football and the NFL.
New York Giants offensive lineman Zach Fulton has reportedly called it a career after recently announcing his retirement from playing professional football. Fulton is the third veteran to hang it up since training camp started for Big Blue.
Today marks the unofficial start to the 2021 Oklahoma football season, as the Sooners open preseason training camp in quest of a seventh straight Big 12 title. The Sooners’ 114-member roster and coaches assembled on the practice field in Norman for the first day of preseason practice leading up to the 2021 season-opening game at […]
