Arizona coach Tommy Lloyd has the Wildcats rolling in his first season on the job.

The Oklahoma Sooners may have missed out on the 2022 NCAA Tournament, but that’s not going to stop us from breaking down the big dance in excruciatingly minute detail. We’re previewing every region before the games tip off in earnest on Thursday.

Here’s a look at the South Region, arguably the toughest group of this year’s bracket.

2022 NCAA Tournament – South Region Preview

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The favorite: Arizona

The Wildcats have stunned the college hoops world by exploding out of the gate under first-year head coach Tommy Lloyd. The former Gonzaga assistant inherited some talented holdovers from predecessor Sean Miller and molded them into one of the nation’s elite teams.

UA is dealing with an injury to Estonian guard Kerr Kriisa, an adept distributor of the basketball and reliable scorer. You could also make the case that the Wildcats caught an unlucky break by picking this year to be this good: Gonzaga capturing the No. 1 overall seed meant UA got shipped to the South Region in San Antonio.

Arizona has to survive a loaded draw, but this squad has the chops to do it.

Best matchup: No. 13 Chattanooga vs. No. 4 Illinois

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The analytics strongly favor the Fighting Illini in this game, and they are giving 7.5 points to the Mocs. The eye test, however, tells a different story, as the Illini went 5-4 down the stretch. Meanwhile, Nooga won their final five consecutive games, including a thriller in the Southern Conference Tournament final over Furman.

The Mocs defend well against the three-point shot, but they don’t usually see a low-post threat on the other team like Illinois center Kofi Cockburn. If the big fella commands help in half-court offensive sets, it will set up Illini marksman Alfonso Plummer for open looks on the perimeter. That dynamic should concern Chattanooga coach Lamont Paris.

Paris has a veteran-laden team that won’t get overwhelmed by taking on a Big Ten team. The Mocs will hang tough here, even if they get bounced eventually.

Upset alert: No. 6 Colorado State over No. 11 Michigan

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An upset in the literal sense: The oddsmakers have the Wolverines favored in this contest by 2.5 points. That feels like a mistake.

Frankly, Michigan shouldn’t even be here. UM’s 17-14 record speaks to the Wolverines’ underwhelming reality. They snagged a few solid wins during Big Ten play, but they lost enough games to mediocre opponents to suggest the selection committee had better alternatives.

The Rams may struggle initially with the size of Michigan’s front line. After surviving the rugged slate in the Mountain West Conference, they should settle in and give star forward David Roddy room to operate inside and out. One of the most underrated players in the country, Roddy will get a chance to show everyone what they’ve been missing while he toils in obscurity during late-night tipoffs.

Icy: Collin Gillespie

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If there are players who are more valuable to their teams this season than Gillespie, the list is short.

Gillespie operates coach Jay Wright’s offense as well as you could ask, but the fifth-year senior guard earned the 2022 Big East Player of the Year award by shining in the Wildcats’ biggest games of the season. He led the team in scoring at 15.9 points per game, giving his best performances in matchups like an 89-84 win at Providence on March 15 that saw Gillespie toss in a career-high 33 points. In the final of the Big East Tournament, he scored all 17 of his points during the second half in pacing Nova to a 54-48 win over Creighton.

Gillespie will get a shot this year to make up for missing the 2021 tournament with a knee injury. History suggests he will make good on that opportunity.

Sweet 16: No. 1 Arizona over No. 5 Houston; No. 2 Villanova over No. 3 Tennessee

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As would be expected from one of Kelvin Sampson’s teams, UH has overcome major setbacks this year to emerge as one of the better teams in the country. That run will come to an end in San Antonio against an overpowering Arizona team.

The other game in this group will come down to tournament experience. Between Gillespie and guard Justin Moore, Nova has a wealth of it in the back court. The Volunteers will rely primarily on two freshmen. Advantage to Wright’s squad.

Elite 8: Arizona over Villanova

Nova’s plodding pace may frustrate Zona enough to score an upset in the final game of the region. UA’s athleticism appears more likely to overwhelm the team from the Big East.

Kentucky will try to knock off the defending national champions.

The Oklahoma Sooners may have missed out on the 2022 NCAA Tournament, but that’s not going to stop us from breaking down the big dance in excruciatingly minute detail. We’re previewing every region before the games tip off in earnest on Thursday.

Here’s a look at the East Region, where the defending national champions earned the top seed.

2022 NCAA Tournament – East Region Preview

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The favorite: Kentucky

The tournament selection committee may have preferred Baylor’s body of work, but Vegas likes the Wildcats over the top-seeded Bears. BetMGM lists UK at +850 to win the whole thing, while the Bears are at +1200.

The oddsmakers have this one right because there is a lot to like about coach John Calipari’s team in 2022. Chief among them: power forward Oscar Tshiebwe, a preternatural rebounder and possibly the national player of the year. A wealth of talent and experience surround the West Virginia transfer, including guards TyTy Washington and Sahvir Wheeler.

A horrific shooting performance versus Tennessee in a loss in the SEC Tournament offered a glimpse of what the Wildcats might look like on a bad day. It wasn’t bad enough to say they should take a back seat to any other team in this region.

Best matchup: No. 10 San Francisco vs. No. 7 Murray State

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If winning is a skill, the Racers have it in abundance. Murray State (30-2) has notched 20 straight victories dating back to December.

Despite playing in the West Coast Conference’s shadow of Gonzaga, the Dons put together a solid campaign of their own. USF’s 24-9 record may not look as pretty, but kenpom.com ranks the team 21st overall. That’s six spots ahead of Murray State, for the record.

To keep their winning streak alive, the Racers will need to penetrate the Dons’ suffocating defense, which ranks 19th in adjusted efficiency. Both teams defend the three-point line particularly well, so the outcome will probably come down to the team that shows the better ability to get to the rim.

Upset alert: No. 11 Virginia Tech over No. 6 Texas

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The Longhorns are laying a point, so this counts.

The Hokies caught fire down the stretch as they won 13 of their final 15 games. That stretch culminated in an 82-67 beatdown of Duke in the ACC Tournament final that wasn’t even as close as the score would indicate.

Tech coach Mike White doesn’t have the notoriety of Texas’ Chris Beard, but the Hokies play brilliant, methodical ball on offense. Beard could spend countless hours up until tipoff drawing up defensive schemes to stop White’s offensive sets, and it still might not be enough.

UT’s size might carry the Longhorns past Tech, but the bet here is Tech’s hot shooting sends the Hokies to the second round.

Dark horse: Saint Mary’s

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The Gaels play a tournament-friendly style of basketball. They slow the tempo to a crawl and probe opposing defenses to set up good shots. On defense, they guard the three-point line hard enough so that opponents generate only 26% of their scoring against Saint Mary’s from behind the arc, one of the lowest rates in the country.

All in all, the discipline required to beat Randy Bennett’s team is a tall order for most of the Gaels’ opponents. Don’t be shocked if Saint Mary’s ends up playing for a spot in the Final Four.

Sweet 16: No. 1 Baylor over No. 5 Saint Mary’s; No. 2 Kentucky over No. 3 Purdue

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Not many surprises here. The Gaels throw enough funky stuff at UCLA’s isolation-heavy offense in round two to score an upset. The Bears have too much firepower, however, and the defending champs advance to the Elite 8.

Purdue will probably struggle in one of its first two games because that’s what the Boilermakers do. They will also put a scare into Kentucky in the Sweet 16 because that’s what they do. The Wildcats will survive the shootout and move on.

Elite 8: Kentucky over Baylor

This has classic potential, as we’re talking about two of the four best teams in the sport this season. So what gives UK the edge? Both of these squads hit the offensive boards hard, but the Wildcats are slightly better when it comes to limiting those second-chance opportunities. Also, the Bears’ spotty shooting from the free-throw line provides cause for concern in tight games.

The Bears will have to console themselves with last season’s national title. Somehow Scott Drew will manage.

The Zags once again look like the class of college basketball.

The Oklahoma Sooners may have missed out on the 2022 NCAA Tournament, but that’s not going to stop us from breaking down the big dance in excruciatingly minute detail. We’re previewing every region before the games tip off in earnest on Thursday.

First up is the West Region, where overall No. 1 seed Gonzaga will set off on a quest to bring home the Bulldogs’ first national championship.

2022 NCAA Tournament – West Region Preview

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The favorite: Gonzaga

Just like a year ago, the Zags come into March Madness as the prohibitive favorites to cut down the nets in New Orleans when all is said and done. Also like last season, Mark Few’s team has held the top spot in most rankings systems – be they opinion- or analytics-based – for the vast majority of the season.

The difference in 2022 is that this edition of Gonzaga doesn’t carry the same aura of invincibility as the 2021 squad. Part of that may be due to the manner in which Baylor dismantled the Bulldogs in the final game last year. Additionally, the Zags have suffered a handful of losses this year, including a resounding defeat at Saint Mary’s to close the regular season.

The fact that they’re not shooting for a spotless record may work in Gonzaga’s favor this year if it eases some pressure off the West Coast Conference champ. On the other hand, this squad lacks the stellar backcourt of a year ago, led by NBA lottery pick Jalen Suggs at point guard.

No other team in the country can match the one-two punch of forwards Drew Timme and Chet Holmgren, and their brilliance could get the Zags over the hump. This team is still a step down from what they had the last time they were dancing in March.

Best matchup: No. 9 Memphis vs. No. 8 Boise State

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The oddsmakers view this as a virtual toss-up, installing the Tigers as 1.5-point favorites. Kenpom.com projects the Broncos as 68-67 winners.

Ultimately, this game looks like a typical clash of styles. Boise State plays a slowdown game keyed by its rugged defense, which ranks 17th nationally in adjusted efficiency. The Broncos also have four players in their usual rotation who stand 6-7 or taller, so they clean the glass.

Penny Hardaway’s Memphis team likes to push the pace and get transition baskets. The Tigers rebound the ball on the offensive end as well as any team in the country, but they may find they’ve met their match in BSU’s burly front line.

This game tips off in the early window in Portland on Thursday, so travel and logistics probably give the Broncos a slight edge.

Upset alert: No. 13 Vermont over No. 4 Arkansas

Another case of contrasting styles, with the Razorbacks running and gunning and the Catamounts stalling and crawling.

Vermont may take its time, but we’re talking about an efficient offense with one of the highest effective field goal percentages in the country at 57.3%. Defensively, they give up fewer rebounds to opponents than any other team in the country, so it seems unlikely that the Hogs will bully them for second-chance points in the paint.

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Watch for the Catamounts to slow the pace down and work Arkansas’ defense for good looks. Also watch the stands for what is sure to be the most entertaining culture clash between fans in the first round.

Enough already: Coach K’s last dance

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The television executives will certainly hope to milk Duke coach Mike Krzyzewski’s final appearance in the NCAA tournament for all its worth. Unfortunately for them, the Blue Devils are – trying to put this politely – poorly coached. They don’t lack for talent or skill, but they can be had on the offensive boards. Coach K also doesn’t seem to be able to get much effort out of his players on defense. They instead rely on their athleticism to make up for a lack of diligence.

The conspiracy theories will run wild if Duke makes a deep run. This team is leaking enough oil to think that is unlikely, though. K can’t like the prospect of seeing Michigan State’s Tom Izzo or Bob McKillop of Davidson on the other bench in the second round.

Sweet 16: No. 1 Gonzaga over No. 5 UConn; No. 3 Texas Tech over No. 2 Duke

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While the Blue Devils will get tested by Davidson in round two, they will march on to San Francisco. The Red Raiders will most likely bludgeon them there.

With the Hogs getting knocked out in the first round, UConn will skate through the first two games before meeting the Gonzaga buzzsaw.

Elite 8: Gonzaga over Tech

The best offense in the country over the best defense, as the Red Raiders’ lack of outside shooting finally catches up to them.