How will the Red Raiders respond in their first game after Matt Wells’ dismissal?

On the eve of Halloween, the No. 4 Oklahoma Sooners (8-0, 5-0) will take on the Texas Tech Red Raiders (5-3, 2-3) in a matchup between two programs moving in opposite directions. For OU, this is a team that controls its own destiny and has all of its goals squarely before it. On the other side, TTU has just fired its head coach while it continues to compete for bowl eligibility. Will Lincoln Riley improve to 7-0 against his alma mater this weekend? Stay tuned.

Date, Time & TV: Saturday, Oct. 30 at 2:30 p.m. CT on ABC

Line: Oklahoma -19 (as of Friday at 3 p.m. CT)

O/U: 67

Game Notes:

Lincoln Riley Week Nine Press Conference Notes

OU-Texas Tech Game Primer

Viva the Matadors dishes on the firing of TTU head coach Matt Wells

Allen Kenney looks at the strategy against OU and what might change going forward

CCMachine Podcast: Kamiar and Stephen talk all things OU going into Week Nine

Friday’s Final Word

Major Storylines

Matt Wells is out, Sonny Cumbie takes over

After a 13-17 run over two and a half seasons in Lubbock, Matt Wells was fired from his position as Texas Tech’s head coach earlier this week. Offensive coordinator and former Red Raider QB Sonny Cumbie has since taken over on a interim basis, but it remains to be seen how different TTU will play or even look under this new leadership. One thing’s for sure, Alex Grinch better be prepared or else this could turn into an extremely ugly shootout, especially with the miscues that have plagued the Sooners’ defense for the majority of the season.

Will OU’s defense play more aggressively?

Speaking of Grinch and the Oklahoma defense, after last weekend’s embarrassing showing against Kansas, something has to change now. At this point, it’s obvious that these defensive lapses are a lot more than a simple matter of missing certain players due to injury. KU isn’t known for its offensive prowess, not by a long shot, yet the Jayhawks were able to move the ball methodically at will for most of that game. The game plan is out there. Teams are playing keep away by going on long drives and converting on third and fourth down. It’s no secret, and an adjustment has to be made before the competition ramps up in November. The aggressive play ‘Speed D’ is known for must make its return, or these issues will ultimately cost this team an opportunity to play for all the marbles.

I am once again asking Oklahoma to start fast

Something that would help OU’s chances tremendously would be if the offense could actually start fast for once. Another scoreless first half like the one in Lawrence will probably spell doom for this team in any other game the rest of this season. A big part of starting fast will be to actually receive the possession first, which obviously involves a little coin toss luck. If that happens, going ahead early would force Tech to adjust how it plays, and if Cumbie’s plan is to play keep away and control the clock, he might have to scrap that plan real quick. Sure, if the defense still can’t get off the field on third down, then this could easily turn into a shootout, but regardless, it’s always better to be the team dictating the pace of the game.

How do the Sooners enter the bye week?

It’s been a long time — 11 years to be exact — since an FBS team has played through the first nine weeks of a college football season and finished that stretch with a 9-0 record. Shout out to Allen Kenney for that incredible stat. If OU wins this Saturday, they’ll become the first team to accomplish such a feat since 2010. While on one hand that would be extremely impressive in and of itself, on the other it could also speak to some of the seemingly conservative approaches we’ve seen from Lincoln Riley in games and unconventional practice measures as of late (like not holding practice altogether).

With health and rest an increasing concern in the world of sports, Oklahoma would stand to benefit significantly if it can get through this weekend without any more injuries, then go into the off-week focusing on healing up and preparing for the fourth quarter gauntlet of the regular season.

Prediction

It may have taken me longer than most, but I’ve finally reached the point where I can longer expect this team to handle an opponent how they should (or how Vegas expects them to). The consistent breakdowns on third down and inability to string together negative plays gives me no confidence that this defense will shut down any team with an offensive pulse. That said, I am relatively confident in Caleb Williams and this offense, but unfortunately, if that group is only going to have the ball around nine times per game, I don’t see the scoreboard lighting up any time soon. With all of that said, I do think OU will manage to play with the lead early on against the Red Raiders, and even after giving up several maddening conversions and big plays on defense, they won’t allow the opposition to pull off a major upset sans Matt Wells.

Oklahoma 44, Texas Tech 34

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OU continued a run of odd strategies and in-game decisions in a too-close-for-comfort victory over lowly KU.

The Oklahoma Sooners’ 35-23 win over the Kansas Jayhawks last weekend looked like the latest in a string of generally uninspiring wins on the road to an 8-0 record.

While it’s not uncommon for the Sooners work out the kinks early in the year, the 2021 OU team is taking starting slow to another level. Five of eight wins have come by one score or less. The Sooners overcame a 21-point deficit to beat Texas. KU might have been the most unsatisfying performance yet, with OU needing a comeback in the fourth quarter to squeak out a 32-23 win over one of the weakest teams in the power conferences.

Normally, the bottom falls out on teams that have scraped by in such a fashion. OU could definitely end up that way this year. Keep in mind the Sooners still have arguably their three toughest games remaining – road trips to Baylor and Oklahoma State and a home date with Iowa State.

But something about the way Lincoln Riley is approaching the 2021 season feels strange. I had the same experience watching the KU game that I’ve had multiple times already this year:

Although a stank showing on defense against the Jayhawks is drawing the ire of Sooner Nation this week, let’s talk about what OU was doing on offense.

Stop me if you’ve heard this one before: When the Sooners had possession, the Jayhawks played soft zone coverage to prevent big plays. OU has seen some version of this bend-but-don’t-break scheme from opponents five or six times this year. Here’s an example of what it looked like before the snap:

On its second possession of the game, OU is facing second and 10 from its own 36 yard line. The Sooners line up in 11 personnel with running back Kennedy Brooks and H-back Jeremiah Hall flanking quarterback Caleb Williams in the backfield. The receivers aren’t doing anything exotic.

The Jayhawks are playing a standard 4-2-5, and the defensive backs are giving the Sooners generous cushions. Thanks to the camera angles in Lawrence, we can’t see the cornerback and safety lined up to the boundary side of the field. We can surmise, however, that both are playing way off the line of scrimmage. The CB across from Marvin Mims to the field side of the formation is off about 10 yards. To the inside, the nickel across from slot receiver Drake Stoops is roughly eight yards back, while the strong safety sets up shop around nine yards from the line.

On the snap, Williams fakes a handoff with Brooks moving to the right. KU brings four rushers, while the two inside linebackers and the SS hedge momentarily based on the play action from Williams. The CBs, free safety and nickel bail on the snap. Essentially, the Jayhawks are playing Cover 3 with the two CBs and FS dividing the field into deep thirds.

For OU, Brooks sprints right to the flat, and Hall stays in to block. Mims runs a deep post, Stoops is on a deep slant route across the field and Jadon Haselwood is running an over route from the left side of the formation to the right.

The above image is what Williams sees from the pocket, where he is facing zero pressure. (Much obliged to ESPN analyst Robert Griffin III for providing a passing cone.) At this moment, the QB has three very good options:

• Throw down deep to the opposite sideline for Haselwood;
• Throw short to Brooks all by his lonesome in the right flat;
• Tuck it and head for all that green to the right.

Williams walks through door four. He holds the ball, rolls right and takes a 50/50 shot on the move down the field Haselwood, who ran out of open real estate once he got to the sideline. Interception.

We can conclude in this case that Williams made a poor decision, which is true. But consider the context in which this specific play happened.

The Jayhawks’ opening drive of the game, which ended in a touchdown, consumed 80 yards in 14 plays and took more than nine minutes off the clock. OU responded with a drive of five plays that took two minutes and 45 seconds in game time. It ended with a punt after a busted blocking assignment resulted in a sack. KU drained nearly seven minutes off the clock on the ensuing drive and came away with three points. Now trailing 10-0, OU’s shorthanded defense had been on the field for 26 plays.

That’s a long-winded way of saying the Sooners could have used some points on this drive – preferably from a long possession. Riley could have called an untold number of plays against that particular D to chew up an easy eight-ish yards and stay on schedule. Instead, the play call played right into the what the Jayhawks telegraphed they were doing from the jump.

Jay Biggerstaff-USA TODAY Sports

So why call that play in that situation?

And that’s just one in a series of curious decisions. For instance, Williams’ legs have arguably provided the most effective weapon in OU’s arsenal for the last three games. He has averaged a whopping 10.3 yards per rush during that stretch. If you exclude sacks from his attempts, that increases to 13.3 yards.

On called run plays involving the QB against KU – all of which came in the fourth quarter – Williams had 82 yards on just four attempts. What does the final score look like if Riley unleashes the QB run from the jump?

I could keep going. The Sooners called one WR screen pass against KU despite all that ample room for receivers to operate around the line of scrimmage. Honestly, you could apply some of the same logic to the defensive side of the ball. It started with the liberal substitution patterns on defense from the first game of the season against the Tulane. Against KU, OU held out available players from the first string to give them an extra week off to recover from injuries.

It would make fans like me feel better to watch OU wipe the mat with teams like KU and Tulane. It’s entirely possible that this team just isn’t good enough to do that.

But it also seems clear to me that Riley isn’t coaching this team in ways that would maximize the quality of its play. (Texas excluded.) I don’t really see plans of attack intended to exploit the other teams’ weaknesses. Instead, I see game plans built on objectives like preserving players’ health and and testing how a freshman quarterback reacts to different situations. I’m guessing that’s not unintentional.

Combine that approach with almost every opponent playing to shorten the game and you get… well, whatever this season has been.

If that is true, it’s undoubtedly a gamble on Riley’s part. His team has played with fire week in and week out.

But the team currently sits at 8-0, and a win over Texas Tech this week would make OU the first team to go 9-0 in the first nine weeks of the college football season since 2010. If the goal was simply to survive and crank things up in November, the Sooners are approaching the stretch run intact.

The fifth-year head coach addressed some of the mounting concerns surrounding his 8-0 football team.

The No. 4 Oklahoma Sooners boast a perfect record at 8-0 (5-0 in Big 12 play), but after coming as close as they did to suffering the ultimate upset in Lawrence, Kansas, not to mention the other five close games this season, OU is a team that desperately needs to find some definitive answers to its rapidly growing list of questions before a daunting November stretch.

Lincoln Riley, winner of the last 16 games he’s coached, addressed many of those questions on Tuesday in his weekly presser. When asked to assess the issues that have continued to plague his team this fall, he went on to say that “I’ve been around here long enough that if you keep winning, things tend to work themselves out. We have eight wins. We have the longest winning streak in the country. The sky is not falling. Don’t write us off yet.”

Not to look too far ahead, the Crimson & Cream are set to host Texas Tech (who recently fired head coach Matt Wells on Monday) this weekend before closing out the month of October and entering an off-week that’s been long overdue. On Tuesday, Riley met with the media for his regularly scheduled Week Nine Press Conference (full presser link here).

Presser highlights

Riley on the status of injured players

It’s no secret that OU has lost a high number of players to injury over the course of this season, but Riley shared some relatively positive news on that front regarding a couple key wide receivers (Mario Williams and Mike Woods) and one very talented defensive lineman in Jalen Redmond.

“Receiver-wise, I think we’ll have to see. I think Mario and Mike both have a chance, but they’re still a little limited right now. Neither one of them were very close to being able to play the other day. I hope to have them available this week.”

Regarding Redmond: “We do anticipate having him available this week.”

Riley on the lack of defensive pressure up front

Oklahoma’s highly-touted defensive front has been borderline ineffective in generating pressure or forcing stops over the last few weeks. Riley spoke about what the reason could be for the unit’s recent lack of production.

“I thought we were a little bit better (against Kansas) than we were against TCU. Some of it comes with just kind of the nature of that game and the way that it played out. It was a much different game than TCU against so much run game, kind of controlling the clock, play-action. Could we be better on the front? Yes. Are there some things we can do better schematically to try to help that? Yes. […] I think the answer is nobody’s way off. We just need everybody to be a little bit better.”

Riley on his level of concern for the defense

When Kansas is moving the ball at will for four quarters, there are some serious defensive issues that need to be addressed. It’s not only the yards and points that OU is giving up in bunches as of late, it’s the methodical, time-consuming drives that are wearing down the Sooners from the very beginning of the game. Riley talked about his current level of concern for his defense on Tuesday.

“I think we know over the last two weeks we haven’t played up to our capability. You turn on the tape, and I think as a coach you look at it and you say ‘Alright, what’s the cause of this? Why is this happening? Is it capability? Is it guys schematically? What’s causing it?’ The biggest issue I see with us, and it’s certainly not to take anything away from Kansas, but the majority of breakdowns that we have, we’re causing. […] My confidence level is still very high. There are things, obviously, that we have to correct with the guys that have been playing.”

Riley on if he was shocked by the team’s flatness

Ask anybody who watched Oklahoma’s first half performance against the Jayhawks and they’ll tell you that was a team that looked completely flat with no energy or sense of urgency. Riley was asked about seeing his team look almost lifeless for a half on both sides of the ball.

“Was I shocked? I don’t know, I don’t get shocked at football games very often. I mean, anything can happen. […] You know, I had to learn this being (at OU), and I would compare it to you guys or our fan base, you take how we feel, and I’m talking as a fan base, people that watch the program, this that, how do we feel about going to play Texas? That week to everybody here feels different. Okay, understand that everybody that plays us, that’s how they feel about playing us. That’s the world we live in every single week, so when you ask me about my shock factor, no, because I know nine times out of ten the team that we see on tape against somebody is not going to be the same opponent we’re going to play. It’s just the nature of the beast, and that’s fine.”

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With today’s win over KU, the Sooners extend their overall winning streak to 16 games.

On a weird visit to the Sunflower State, the No. 3 Oklahoma Sooners stumbled to a 35-23 victory over the Kansas Jayhawks (1-6, 0-4). With the win, OU improves to 8-0 on the season, 5-0 in Big 12 play and have some major problems that need to be addressed going forward.

It was a strange start in Lawrence. The contest didn’t begin on time because College GameDay ran long on ESPN. Then, during the Jayhawks’ opening drive, a campus-wide power outage caused the video board to shut down temporarily. All the while, Kansas executed its game plan to perfection, devouring clock and converting on third down (converted seven-of-nine opportunities). Meanwhile, Lincoln Riley’s offense only managed to touch the ball once in the game’s opening quarter and just three times in a shockingly scoreless first half.

Caleb ‘Superman’ Williams looked relatively human for the first time since he led OU’s rally in the Red River Showdown. On the day, the true freshman QB recorded 178 passing yards and two touchdowns on 15 of 20 attempts. He also added 68 rushing yards and another score on eight carries, including this spectacularly heady play to take the ball away from Kennedy Brooks and convert a key fourth down on his own.

After getting blanked in the first half, Oklahoma outscored Kansas, 35-13 over the final thirty minutes of the game. It’s not what any fan wearing crimson & cream wants to see, but in a season where ranked teams are being upset at a record pace, finding a way to win week after week is the ultimate goal.

Tennessee transfer Key Lawrence made a heck of a play in the fourth quarter by forcing a fumble (recovered by Justin Broiles) to give the ball back to the Sooners with a 21-17 advantage.

Following the takeaway, on a fourth and three, Williams broke a couple would-be-tackles behind the line of scrimmage and went the distance to give OU a two-score lead.

By and large, this performance was easily the worst Oklahoma’s defense has looked all season, but not necessarily from a total yards standpoint. That’s saying something, considering that group hasn’t exactly been impressive through eight games. Lance Leipold’s offense was able to do absolutely whatever it wanted to from the very beginning, and Jason Bean and company made the Sooners look foolishly unprepared. Whatever the reason is for this utterly poor showing, whether it’s injuries or apathy or a mixture of both, Alex Grinch has to make some major adjustments before it costs the team in the win/loss column.

Up next, Oklahoma wraps up the month of October at home against Texas Tech (5-3, 2-3) on Saturday, Oct. 30. The streaking Sooners have defeated the Red Raiders in nine consecutive meetings dating back to the 2012 season. Kick-off is set for 2:30 p.m. CT on ABC.

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Strange things sometimes happen in Lawrence. Sometimes.

The No. 3 Oklahoma Sooners (7-0, 4-0) are coming off their most comfortable win of the season against an FBS opponent, and are now looking to continue their streak of good vibes north of the state border. Meanwhile, the Kansas Jayhawks (1-5, 0-3) are looking forward to the upcoming college basketball season. Will this matchup become more interesting than it needs to be? Share your thoughts in the game thread below.

Take it away, Toby.

Time & TV: Saturday, Oct. 23 at 11 a.m. CT on ESPN

Commentary: Mark Jones, Robert Griffin III and Quint Kessenich

Streaming: WatchESPN

Line: Oklahoma -38.5 (as of Saturday at 8 a.m. CT)

O/U: 66.5

OU-Kansas Game Primer

Seth’s Game Preview

Mike Plank’s preview of Oklahoma at KU for Rock Chalk Talk

Allen Kenney looks at where OU can improve going into the back half of the season

Check out this officially licensed Marvin Mims TD shirt from BreakingT

A special shoutout to Jack and Ashley for getting married last night! BOOMER!

Final Thoughts

Oklahoma has more talent than Kansas does at practically every position on the field. The Sooners also have more depth than the Jayhawks, more experience, and a culture imbued with a winning standard. Simply put, OU should not have any difficulty putting away this KU team today, but college football is the most exciting sport because there truly are no guarantees. That being said, I just don’t see anything wildly unexpected happening in Lawrence on this day. Here’s to all the stats being heavily padded and absolutely no injuries.

Prediction

Oklahoma 65, Kansas 9

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Can OU cover the spread for the third week in a row?

This weekend, the surging No. 3 Oklahoma Sooners (7-0, 4-0) are headed back to the Sunflower State where the struggling Kansas Jayhawks (1-5, 0-3) await their fate. Normally, there isn’t much hype going into a game between the top and bottom teams of a given conference, and unfortunately for KU that remains true for this contest, as this appears to be an extremely lopsided Big 12 matchup. Nevertheless, let’s go.

It’s official. OU will rock its rough rider alternates on the road this Saturday in Lawrence. Love ‘em or hate ‘em, it would likely take a miracle or two for this team to look bad against this next opponent.

Date, Time & TV: Saturday, Oct. 23 at 11 a.m. CT on ESPN

Line: Oklahoma -38.5 (as of Friday at 1 p.m. CT)

O/U: 66.5

Game Notes:

OU-Kansas Game Primer

Mike Plank’s preview of Oklahoma at KU for Rock Chalk Talk

Allen Kenney looks at where the Sooners can improve going into the back half of the season

Week Eight Gambling Picks from Allen & the Skinny

Friday’s Final Word

Major Storylines

The Caleb Williams Show continues

After accounting for 361 total yards and five total touchdowns in his first collegiate start, true freshman QB Caleb Williams has totally solidified himself as the new leader of Oklahoma’s offense. For his sensational performance last Saturday, he was named Big 12 Offensive Player of the Week. Looking ahead to this weekend, one can only expect his outstanding play to continue against Kansas’ poorly rated defense.

How much does Spencer Rattler play?

If all goes according to plan, and I’m assuming it will, Spencer Rattler will play most of the second half against the Jayhawks once the Sooners are up by five or six scores. Now, the last time anybody saw the former Heisman Trophy favorite on the field in live action was when he connected with Drake Stoops on a two-point conversion to tie things up against Texas. Before that, he was pulled for Caleb Williams after coughing the ball up one too many times. It’ll be interesting to see how he and the offense around him responds when his number is inevitably called.

No more injuries, please

Like many teams around college football, Oklahoma is quite banged up, especially on defense. Some of the players that are working their way back to the field include NB Jeremiah Criddell, CB D.J. Graham, DL Jalen Redmond, S Delarrin Turner-Yell, CB Woodi Washington and offensively, highly experienced and talented WR Theo Wease has yet to play a down this season. Lists like that tend to happen when you’re going on your eighth consecutive game week without a BYE. Fortunately, Lincoln Riley’s team will have a chance to rest some starters and dip into the depth chart as long as they can take care of business from the opening kick-off.

Which Jayhawks should OU be aware of?

Offensively, junior QB Jason Bean has established himself as a capable dual-threat, and with how vulnerable the Sooners’ secondary is right now, he could find some success if the rush isn’t able to get home. On the other side of the ball, KU senior defensive end Kyron Johnson currently leads his team with 2.5 sacks and a pair of forced fumbles on the season, so he’s a guy that Oklahoma will need to stay mindful of whenever he’s on the field.

Prediction

Folks, as much as I want to temper my expectations about this matchup, Kansas simply hasn’t shown me any good reason to believe it can make this a competitive contest for longer than a quarter. I think Caleb Williams picks up where he left off against TCU, both with his arm and his legs, and guys like Marvin Mims and Jadon Haselwood are primed to go to work against the Jayhawks’ hapless secondary. Look for Kennedy Brooks to also continue his midseason surge on the ground, as well as Oklahoma’s rushing attack as a whole. Defensively, KU hasn’t had to protect against the kind of front the Sooners are bringing to Lawrence, and because of that I envision a great many third-and-very-longs for the home squad. In the end, not only do I predict OU to win big in this game, I expect the Crimson & Cream to cover with ease.

Oklahoma 65, Kansas 9

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